Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.96 – 144.49

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

136 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.2 ±13.3

1836The MilkenKnights

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 19.43Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7230Mythic Mechanix

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 30.67Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5851Striking Vikings

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 30.86Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.4 ±12.2

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 54.02Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 67.05Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4470TiGears

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 23.42Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1836, 7230, 5851

/ 100 compat

Projected

81 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1836, 7230, 5851

Auto

27.9 36%

Teleop

32.2 42%

Endgame

17.0 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 812, 5669, 4470

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 812, 5669, 4470

Auto

19.5 14%

Teleop

84.9 62%

Endgame

32.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81pts

Blue projected score144.5pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.5
Score range: 51–174
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 165.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.2Season APEX215.4

27.9Auto19.5

32.2Teleop84.9

17Endgame32.8

0Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	29
teleop	76	70
endgame	36	50
foul	0	0
total	136	149

Result

Final score

136 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 pts

Match videos

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