Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

180.28 – 89.13

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 45.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.9 ±11

5124West Torrance Robotics

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 20.08Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 62.83Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 97.37Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.6 ±11.6

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 33.92Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 38.9Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7447Rōnin Robotics

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 16.31Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5124, 4123, 4415

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5124, 4123, 4415

Auto

48.8 27%

Teleop

87.2 49%

Endgame

42.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4999, 4141, 7447

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4999, 4141, 7447

Auto

16.4 20%

Teleop

34.5 41%

Endgame

32.6 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score180.3pts

Blue projected score89.1pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.2
Score range: 59–210
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 361 vs event baseline 164.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.9Season APEX215.6

48.8Auto16.4

87.2Teleop34.5

42.4Endgame32.6

36Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	23
teleop	137	73
endgame	28	47
foul	10	0
total	218	143

Result

Final score

218 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 45.8 pts

Match videos

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