Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

325.31 – 91.99

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

389 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 63.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 585.7 ±10.7

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 167.08Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 28.46Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 129.77Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.3 ±12.2

5285Sea Kings Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 35.28Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6904TeraWatts

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 17.64Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 39.07Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2102, 4501, 1538

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2102, 4501, 1538

Auto

58.5 19%

Teleop

194.9 63%

Endgame

56.8 18%

Strengths

· 2102 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5285, 6904, 4079

/ 100 compat

Projected

92 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5285, 6904, 4079

Auto

20.8 24%

Teleop

47.5 54%

Endgame

19.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score325.3pts

Blue projected score92pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 233.3
Score range: 62–355
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 164.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

585.7Season APEX198.3

58.5Auto20.8

194.9Teleop47.5

56.8Endgame19.8

5Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	18
teleop	209	7
endgame	46	3
foul	50	0
total	389	28

Result

Final score

389 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 63.8 pts

Match videos

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