Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

139.95 – 147.71

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 46.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.1 ±11

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 85.15Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 28.97Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 25.83Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.4 ±12.2

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 55.75Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 67.4Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4470TiGears

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 24.56Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1160, 3952, 1197

/ 100 compat

Projected

140 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1160, 3952, 1197

Auto

17.2 12%

Teleop

72.0 52%

Endgame

50.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 812, 5669, 4470

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 812, 5669, 4470

Auto

18.4 13%

Teleop

86.5 62%

Endgame

33.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140pts

Blue projected score147.7pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.8
Score range: 110–178
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 163.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.1Season APEX215.4

17.2Auto18.4

72Teleop86.5

50.4Endgame33.9

23Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	23
teleop	121	85
endgame	73	28
foul	5	0
total	222	136

Result

Final score

222 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 46.9 pts

Match videos

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