Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.78 – 157.4

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

264 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 70.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.9 ±11

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 102.84Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 68.78Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5124West Torrance Robotics

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 25.16Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.1 ±11

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 91.08Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 34.71Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 31.61Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4415, 4123, 5124

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4415, 4123, 5124

Auto

49.4 26%

Teleop

98.9 51%

Endgame

44.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1160, 3952, 1197

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1160, 3952, 1197

Auto

22.9 15%

Teleop

79.8 52%

Endgame

50.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score196.8pts

Blue projected score157.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.4
Score range: 126–228
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 495 vs event baseline 172.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.9Season APEX321.1

49.4Auto22.9

98.9Teleop79.8

44.4Endgame50.5

36Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	23
teleop	137	124
endgame	67	74
foul	10	10
total	264	231

Result

Final score

264 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 70.4 pts

Match videos

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