Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

418.61 – 330.78

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

521 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 68.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 679 ±9.3

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 191.61Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 9.37Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 217.63Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 585.7 ±10.7

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 131.57Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 31.51Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 167.7Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 599, 968, 9408

/ 100 compat

Projected

418.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 599, 968, 9408

Auto

78.1 19%

Teleop

240.1 59%

Endgame

89.3 22%

Strengths

· 9408 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1538, 4501, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1538, 4501, 2102

Auto

61.1 20%

Teleop

191.2 62%

Endgame

56.0 18%

Strengths

· 2102 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score418.6pts

Blue projected score330.8pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.8
Score range: 301–449
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 818 vs event baseline 169.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

679Season APEX585.7

78.1Auto61.1

240.1Teleop191.2

89.3Endgame56

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	56
teleop	306	119
endgame	103	107
foul	50	15
total	521	297

Result

Final score

521 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 68.1 pts

Match videos

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