Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

193.25 – 141.23

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.9 ±11

5124West Torrance Robotics

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 23.3Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 68.17Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 101.78Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.4 ±12.2

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 52.25Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 66.15Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4470TiGears

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 22.83Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5124, 4123, 4415

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5124, 4123, 4415

Auto

48.5 26%

Teleop

96.7 51%

Endgame

43.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 812, 5669, 4470

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 812, 5669, 4470

Auto

20.9 15%

Teleop

80.6 59%

Endgame

34.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score193.3pts

Blue projected score141.2pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52
Score range: 111–223
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 419 vs event baseline 168.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.9Season APEX215.4

48.5Auto20.9

96.7Teleop80.6

43.4Endgame34.6

32Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	23
teleop	109	110
endgame	59	64
foul	0	0
total	222	197

Result

Final score

222 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 pts

Match videos

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