Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.07 – 206.35

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.3 ±11.7

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 40.91Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 17.87Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7230Mythic Mechanix

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 33.29Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509 ±11.2

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 65.88Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 120.68Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1836The MilkenKnights

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 19.79Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4999, 968, 7230

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4999, 968, 7230

Auto

29.9 37%

Teleop

38.6 47%

Endgame

13.2 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4123, 1538, 1836

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4123, 1538, 1836

Auto

56.4 29%

Teleop

106.2 54%

Endgame

34.7 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.1pts

Blue projected score206.4pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -114.3
Score range: 60–238
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 176.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.3Season APEX509

29.9Auto56.4

38.6Teleop106.2

13.2Endgame34.7

14Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	57
teleop	44	53
endgame	19	7
foul	5	15
total	112	132

Result

Final score

112 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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