Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

281.48 – 113.85

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

347 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 49.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 452.7 ±10.5

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 94.38Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 23Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 164.1Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.3 ±11.7

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 35.9Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 60.8Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8006The Phantoms

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 17.15Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4415, 3952, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4415, 3952, 2102

Auto

48.1 17%

Teleop

152.7 55%

Endgame

74.9 27%

Strengths

· 2102 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4079, 4123, 8006

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4079, 4123, 8006

Auto

25.7 21%

Teleop

57.3 48%

Endgame

36.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score281.5pts

Blue projected score113.9pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 167.6
Score range: 85–310
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 494 vs event baseline 160.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

452.7Season APEX252.3

48.1Auto25.7

152.7Teleop57.3

74.9Endgame36.7

0Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	43
teleop	175	53
endgame	76	46
foul	5	5
total	347	147

Result

Final score

347 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 49.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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