Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.85 – 194.26

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 1.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 114.3 ±13.9

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 30.01Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9573MarauderTech

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX 28.04Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

867Absolute Value

Season APEX 30Event APEX 14.8Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 417.5 ±11.1

5285Sea Kings Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 36.57Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 132.15Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4470TiGears

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 25.54Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4501, 9573, 867

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4501, 9573, 867

Auto

12.0 19%

Teleop

43.0 67%

Endgame

9.5 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5285, 1538, 4470

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5285, 1538, 4470

Auto

46.6 26%

Teleop

96.6 53%

Endgame

39.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.9pts

Blue projected score194.3pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -121.4
Score range: 44–223
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 160.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

114.3Season APEX417.5

12Auto46.6

43Teleop96.6

9.5Endgame39.5

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	42
teleop	4	142
endgame	3	10
foul	50	0
total	75	194

Result

Final score

75 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 1.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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