Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.06 – 51.5

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

138 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.8 ±11.6

5124West Torrance Robotics

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 18.9Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 39.02Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 33.14Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.4 ±13.3

7230Mythic Mechanix

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 28.51Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7447Rōnin Robotics

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 17.09Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8898Royal Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 5.9Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5124, 4141, 4999

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5124, 4141, 4999

Auto

29.4 34%

Teleop

39.3 45%

Endgame

17.7 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7230, 7447, 8898

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7230, 7447, 8898

Auto

20.6 53%

Teleop

5.1 13%

Endgame

13.1 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.1pts

Blue projected score51.5pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.6
Score range: 23–120
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 211 vs event baseline 159.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.8Season APEX139.4

29.4Auto20.6

39.3Teleop5.1

17.7Endgame13.1

17Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	26
teleop	81	24
endgame	45	18
foul	0	5
total	138	73

Result

Final score

138 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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