Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.35 – 58.68

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 4.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.4 ±11

5285Sea Kings Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 36.9Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 57.13Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 87.32Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.3 ±11

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 27.63Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5851Striking Vikings

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 30.62Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 0.43Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5285, 812, 1160

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5285, 812, 1160

Auto

29.3 16%

Teleop

96.2 52%

Endgame

58.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1197, 5851, 968

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1197, 5851, 968

Auto

8.5 15%

Teleop

23.3 41%

Endgame

24.8 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.4pts

Blue projected score58.7pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.7
Score range: 30–210
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 159.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.4Season APEX266.3

29.3Auto8.5

96.2Teleop23.3

58Endgame24.8

32Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	8
teleop	127	33
endgame	37	15
foul	15	0
total	188	56

Result

Final score

188 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 4.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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