Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.13 – 125.82

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 22 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 148.5 ±13.9

3473Team Sprocket

Season APEX 54.5Event APEX 17.95Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 33.61Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8006The Phantoms

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 20.57Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.3 ±12.8

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 67.66Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6904TeraWatts

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 18.24Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 39.92Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3473, 4501, 8006

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3473, 4501, 8006

Auto

8.7 12%

Teleop

38.6 54%

Endgame

24.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5669, 6904, 4079

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5669, 6904, 4079

Auto

9.5 8%

Teleop

69.9 61%

Endgame

34.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.1pts

Blue projected score125.8pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.7
Score range: 43–155
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 154 vs event baseline 161.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

148.5Season APEX195.3

8.7Auto9.5

38.6Teleop69.9

24.6Endgame34.6

8Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	21
teleop	24	70
endgame	6	7
foul	0	5
total	51	103

Result

Final score

51 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 22 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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