Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

111.91 – 125.59

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 146

Prediction missed · off by 33.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.7 ±11.7

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 57.83Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 28.32Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9573MarauderTech

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX 25.76Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.5 ±11.6

5124West Torrance Robotics

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 16.93Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 93.85Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7447Rōnin Robotics

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 14.81Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4123, 4999, 9573

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4123, 4999, 9573

Auto

45.4 44%

Teleop

45.8 45%

Endgame

11.3 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5124, 4415, 7447

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5124, 4415, 7447

Auto

24.4 20%

Teleop

64.6 54%

Endgame

31.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.9pts

Blue projected score125.6pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.7
Score range: 83–155
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 161.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.7Season APEX250.5

45.4Auto24.4

45.8Teleop64.6

11.3Endgame31.7

4Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	34
teleop	81	67
endgame	28	40
foul	5	5
total	159	146

Result

Final score

159 – 146

Prediction missed · off by 33.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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