Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.29 – 317.54

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.3 ±11.6

4470TiGears

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 25.74Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 24.08Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 0.47Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 501 ±11.2

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 185.84Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7230Mythic Mechanix

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 36.63Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 95.07Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4470, 3952, 968

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.3 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4470, 3952, 968

Auto

12.1 25%

Teleop

23.8 48%

Endgame

13.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 599, 7230, 1160

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 599, 7230, 1160

Auto

51.8 16%

Teleop

191.7 61%

Endgame

71.6 23%

Strengths

· 599 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.44 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.3pts

Blue projected score317.5pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -267.2
Score range: 21–347
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 162.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.3Season APEX501

12.1Auto51.8

23.8Teleop191.7

13.2Endgame71.6

7Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	40
teleop	5	135
endgame	30	51
foul	0	0
total	52	226

Result

Final score

52 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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