Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.5 – 222.14

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

189 – 239

Prediction missed · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.2 ±10.5

5851Striking Vikings

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 31.67Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 62.86Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 136.97Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.2 ±12.4

867Absolute Value

Season APEX 30Event APEX 15.99Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8898Royal Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 2.75Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 203.4Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5851, 812, 1538

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5851, 812, 1538

Auto

41.6 19%

Teleop

133.0 60%

Endgame

48.9 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 867, 8898, 9408

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 867, 8898, 9408

Auto

44.2 20%

Teleop

117.9 54%

Endgame

54.5 25%

Strengths

· 9408 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score231.5pts

Blue projected score222.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.4
Score range: 193–261
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 428 vs event baseline 160.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.2Season APEX354.2

41.6Auto44.2

133Teleop117.9

48.9Endgame54.5

27Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	72
teleop	106	67
endgame	37	40
foul	5	60
total	189	239

Result

Final score

189 – 239

Prediction missed · off by 29.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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