Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.35 – 238.06

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.3 ±12.2

1836The MilkenKnights

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 10.89Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 36.29Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 36.17Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 474.6 ±9.8

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 51.5Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 25.05Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 161.51Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1836, 4141, 4079

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1836, 4141, 4079

Auto

11.3 14%

Teleop

36.2 46%

Endgame

30.8 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4123, 1197, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4123, 1197, 2102

Auto

54.9 24%

Teleop

124.2 54%

Endgame

51.0 22%

Strengths

· 2102 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.4pts

Blue projected score238.1pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -154.7
Score range: 54–267
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 160.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.3Season APEX474.6

11.3Auto54.9

36.2Teleop124.2

30.8Endgame51

15Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	52
teleop	60	145
endgame	21	80
foul	5	5
total	105	282

Result

Final score

105 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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