Qualification · Qualification 46
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
62.06 – 40.15
57%43%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
37 – 79
Prediction missed · off by 32 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 131.9 ±13.3
Season APEX 31.8Event APEX 29.18Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 7.16Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 79Event APEX 25.72Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.4 ±12.8
Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 6.38Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 30Event APEX 12.9Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 20.87Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9573, 8898, 3952
38
/ 100 compatProjected
62.1 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 9573, 8898, 3952
Auto
11.4 21%
Teleop
29.3 54%
Endgame
13.1 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 36%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1836, 867, 1197
27
/ 100 compatProjected
40.2 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 1836, 867, 1197
Auto
10.6 26%
Teleop
12.6 31%
Endgame
17.5 43%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 36%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.3
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score62.1pts
Blue projected score40.2pts
Red win probability57%
Event bonus sample146alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 36%, blue 38%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 21.9
- Score range
- 11–91
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
131.9Season APEX199.4
11.4Auto10.6
29.3Teleop12.6
13.1Endgame17.5
3Consistency41
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 17 | 13 |
| teleop | 10 | 42 |
| endgame | 10 | 24 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 37 | 79 |
Result
Final score
37 – 79
Prediction missed · off by 32 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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