Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

253.83 – 424.79

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

194 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 56.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.4 ±11.1

7447Rōnin Robotics

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 22.05Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 197.46Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 34.32Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 606.9 ±10.7

7230Mythic Mechanix

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 48.75Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 165.39Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 210.65Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7447, 599, 4141

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7447, 599, 4141

Auto

44.4 18%

Teleop

142.6 57%

Endgame

62.7 25%

Strengths

· 599 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7230, 2102, 9408

/ 100 compat

Projected

424.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7230, 2102, 9408

Auto

80.9 20%

Teleop

244.9 59%

Endgame

86.6 21%

Strengths

· 9408 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score253.8pts

Blue projected score424.8pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -171
Score range: 225–454
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 565 vs event baseline 158.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407.4Season APEX606.9

44.4Auto80.9

142.6Teleop244.9

62.7Endgame86.6

17Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	84
teleop	113	196
endgame	52	61
foul	0	30
total	194	371

Result

Final score

194 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 56.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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