Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.23 – 77.63

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.8 ±11.6

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 26.93Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 14.68Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5285Sea Kings Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 33.62Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.7 ±12.8

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 25.41Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 43.46Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6904TeraWatts

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 8.76Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3952, 1197, 5285

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3952, 1197, 5285

Auto

25.7 35%

Teleop

14.8 20%

Endgame

33.5 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4501, 4123, 6904

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4501, 4123, 6904

Auto

32.9 46%

Teleop

33.7 48%

Endgame

4.3 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.2pts

Blue projected score77.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.4
Score range: 46–107
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 160.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.8Season APEX241.7

25.7Auto32.9

14.8Teleop33.7

33.5Endgame4.3

48Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	36
teleop	38	58
endgame	27	40
foul	0	10
total	83	144

Result

Final score

83 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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