Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.43 – 187.44

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 124.9 ±13.3

8006The Phantoms

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 17.05Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5124West Torrance Robotics

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 26.92Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8898Royal Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 7.46Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.6 ±11.2

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 70.75Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 117.67Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX -0.98Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8006, 5124, 8898

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8006, 5124, 8898

Auto

3.8 7%

Teleop

32.7 57%

Endgame

20.6 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5669, 1538, 968

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5669, 1538, 968

Auto

43.2 26%

Teleop

100.9 60%

Endgame

24.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51.4pts

Blue projected score187.4pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -136
Score range: 22–216
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 160.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

124.9Season APEX462.6

3.8Auto43.2

32.7Teleop100.9

20.6Endgame24.8

9Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	18
teleop	28	137
endgame	12	58
foul	0	5
total	49	218

Result

Final score

49 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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