Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.61 – 119.34

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 138

Prediction missed · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265 ±12.8

1836The MilkenKnights

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 1.85Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 80.33Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3473Team Sprocket

Season APEX 54.5Event APEX 20.43Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.4 ±12.2

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 34.16Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9573MarauderTech

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX 21.64Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 63.54Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1836, 1160, 3473

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1836, 1160, 3473

Auto

22.1 22%

Teleop

34.4 35%

Endgame

42.1 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4141, 9573, 812

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4141, 9573, 812

Auto

23.3 22%

Teleop

66.7 63%

Endgame

16.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.6pts

Blue projected score119.3pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.7
Score range: 74–148
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 161.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265Season APEX202.4

22.1Auto23.3

34.4Teleop66.7

42.1Endgame16.6

9Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	16
teleop	103	74
endgame	30	48
foul	5	0
total	158	138

Result

Final score

158 – 138

Prediction missed · off by 37 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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