Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

290.98 – 131.79

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.1 ±11.7

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 71.1Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4470TiGears

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 33.44Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 186.44Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233 ±11.7

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 94.35Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 33.21Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8898Royal Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 4.23Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5669, 4470, 599

/ 100 compat

Projected

291 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5669, 4470, 599

Auto

46.3 16%

Teleop

170.1 60%

Endgame

67.8 24%

Strengths

· 599 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1160, 4079, 8898

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1160, 4079, 8898

Auto

4.0 3%

Teleop

79.1 60%

Endgame

47.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score291pts

Blue projected score131.8pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 159.2
Score range: 103–320
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 162.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.1Season APEX233

46.3Auto4

170.1Teleop79.1

67.8Endgame47.8

31Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	18
teleop	157	71
endgame	48	62
foul	15	0
total	256	151

Result

Final score

256 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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