Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.22 – 84.01

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 2.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.1 ±11.7

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX -0.44Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8898Royal Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 9.47Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 31.19Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.4 ±12.1

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 24.73Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5851Striking Vikings

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 30.45Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5124West Torrance Robotics

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 28.83Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 968, 8898, 4079

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 968, 8898, 4079

Auto

-3.7 0%

Teleop

25.7 69%

Endgame

15.5 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3952, 5851, 5124

/ 100 compat

Projected

84 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3952, 5851, 5124

Auto

16.5 20%

Teleop

50.0 59%

Endgame

18.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.2pts

Blue projected score84pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.8
Score range: 11–113
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 120 vs event baseline 160.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.1Season APEX220.4

-3.7Auto16.5

25.7Teleop50

15.5Endgame18.1

9Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	10
teleop	21	40
endgame	9	33
foul	5	0
total	37	83

Result

Final score

37 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 2.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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