Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

326.79 – 197.5

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

239 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 54.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.4 ±11.2

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 211.5Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6904TeraWatts

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 21.09Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 94.2Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.5 ±11.2

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 23.73Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 152.83Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3473Team Sprocket

Season APEX 54.5Event APEX 20.94Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9408, 6904, 1160

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9408, 6904, 1160

Auto

59.4 19%

Teleop

164.5 53%

Endgame

85.8 28%

Strengths

· 9408 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4999, 2102, 3473

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4999, 2102, 3473

Auto

52.1 28%

Teleop

93.3 50%

Endgame

40.9 22%

Strengths

· 2102 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score326.8pts

Blue projected score197.5pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.3
Score range: 170–355
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 458 vs event baseline 157.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493.4Season APEX385.5

59.4Auto52.1

164.5Teleop93.3

85.8Endgame40.9

55Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	56
teleop	131	103
endgame	54	50
foul	5	10
total	239	219

Result

Final score

239 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 54.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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