Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.4 – 237.42

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 106.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.4 ±13.3

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 44.69Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 75.99Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

867Absolute Value

Season APEX 30Event APEX 19.72Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.1 ±10.4

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 56.7Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 101.89Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 78.83Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4141, 5669, 867

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4141, 5669, 867

Auto

14.9 12%

Teleop

75.2 58%

Endgame

38.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4123, 4415, 812

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4123, 4415, 812

Auto

51.6 23%

Teleop

119.8 53%

Endgame

53.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.4pts

Blue projected score237.4pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97
Score range: 111–266
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 165 vs event baseline 160.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.4Season APEX381.1

14.9Auto51.6

75.2Teleop119.8

38.6Endgame53.4

22Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	51
teleop	39	20
endgame	24	21
foul	0	0
total	73	92

Result

Final score

73 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 106.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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