Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.33 – 75.72

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

261 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 64.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.2 ±11.7

7447Rōnin Robotics

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 12.68Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 140.25Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 13.4Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.9 ±13.3

8898Royal Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 12.47Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6904TeraWatts

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 24.9Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5851Striking Vikings

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 38.35Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7447, 2102, 4501

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7447, 2102, 4501

Auto

31.9 20%

Teleop

95.7 61%

Endgame

30.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8898, 6904, 5851

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8898, 6904, 5851

Auto

9.2 14%

Teleop

31.6 49%

Endgame

23.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.3pts

Blue projected score75.7pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.6
Score range: 47–195
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 160.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.2Season APEX148.9

31.9Auto9.2

95.7Teleop31.6

30.4Endgame23.2

73Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	5
teleop	147	27
endgame	82	9
foul	0	0
total	261	41

Result

Final score

261 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 64.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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