Qualification · Qualification 31
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
293.99 – 181.61
80%20%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
377 – 195
Prediction correct · off by 48.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 508.4 ±10.5
Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 89.61Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 30.14Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 174.24Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.4 ±12.8
Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 22.29Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 87.2Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 72.12Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4415, 5851, 599
82
/ 100 compatProjected
294 pts
~2.2 RP (district)
Teams: 4415, 5851, 599
Auto
49.2 17%
Teleop
160.0 56%
Endgame
75.9 27%
Strengths
- · 599 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 10%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8006, 1160, 5669
61
/ 100 compatProjected
181.6 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 8006, 1160, 5669
Auto
9.0 5%
Teleop
105.0 60%
Endgame
61.1 35%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 10%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.23 · Blue 1
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score294pts
Blue projected score181.6pts
Red win probability80%
Event bonus sample146alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 51%, blue 55%
Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 112.4
- Score range
- 154–322
- Upset likelihood
- 20%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
508.4Season APEX259.4
49.2Auto9
160Teleop105
75.9Endgame61.1
37Consistency17
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 72 | 21 |
| teleop | 201 | 94 |
| endgame | 94 | 80 |
| foul | 10 | 0 |
| total | 377 | 195 |
Result
Final score
377 – 195
Prediction correct · off by 48.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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