Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.67 – 60.35

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

242 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 33.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 470.2 ±10.5

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 131.99Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 13.86Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 30.82Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.3 ±12.7

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 26.79Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

867Absolute Value

Season APEX 30Event APEX 11.97Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5124West Torrance Robotics

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 21.59Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1538, 1197, 4141

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1538, 1197, 4141

Auto

36.4 21%

Teleop

90.8 53%

Endgame

43.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3952, 867, 5124

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3952, 867, 5124

Auto

10.3 16%

Teleop

39.6 63%

Endgame

13.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score176.7pts

Blue projected score60.4pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.3
Score range: 31–206
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 162.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

470.2Season APEX171.3

36.4Auto10.3

90.8Teleop39.6

43.8Endgame13.2

52Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	21
teleop	123	26
endgame	48	12
foul	35	0
total	242	59

Result

Final score

242 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 33.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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