Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

300.24 – 129.86

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

243 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490.3 ±9.8

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 226.91Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 17.87Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 55.46Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.4 ±12.8

9573MarauderTech

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX 22.6Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8006The Phantoms

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 6.35Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 100.91Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9408, 968, 812

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9408, 968, 812

Auto

54.0 19%

Teleop

162.0 58%

Endgame

62.7 22%

Strengths

· 9408 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9573, 8006, 4415

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9573, 8006, 4415

Auto

20.6 17%

Teleop

65.1 53%

Endgame

36.5 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score300.2pts

Blue projected score129.9pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 170.4
Score range: 98–332
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 176.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490.3Season APEX213.4

54Auto20.6

162Teleop65.1

62.7Endgame36.5

42Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	21
teleop	156	74
endgame	5	49
foul	15	5
total	243	149

Result

Final score

243 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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