Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.86 – 63.22

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

252 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 39 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.9 ±11.7

6904TeraWatts

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 14.06Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4470TiGears

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 43.37Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 131.43Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.8 ±12.2

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX -4.78Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9573MarauderTech

Season APEX 31.8Event APEX 42.34Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5285Sea Kings Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 25.66Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6904, 4470, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6904, 4470, 2102

Auto

37.2 21%

Teleop

109.9 61%

Endgame

33.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 968, 9573, 5285

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 968, 9573, 5285

Auto

23.5 38%

Teleop

39.6 64%

Endgame

-1.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.9pts

Blue projected score63.2pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125.6
Score range: 35–217
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 330 vs event baseline 156.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.9Season APEX197.8

37.2Auto23.5

109.9Teleop39.6

33Endgame-1

45Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	22
teleop	111	25
endgame	67	16
foul	15	15
total	252	78

Result

Final score

252 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 39 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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