Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.85 – 90.12

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166.3 ±13.9

8898Royal Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 21.38Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1836The MilkenKnights

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX -9.46Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 75.93Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.8 ±13.3

5851Striking Vikings

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 35.08Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7230Mythic Mechanix

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 35.31Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 19.73Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8898, 1836, 5669

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8898, 1836, 5669

Auto

5.3 8%

Teleop

35.7 51%

Endgame

29.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5851, 7230, 4501

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5851, 7230, 4501

Auto

25.1 30%

Teleop

50.9 61%

Endgame

7.4 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.9pts

Blue projected score90.1pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.3
Score range: 59–119
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 160.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166.3Season APEX201.8

5.3Auto25.1

35.7Teleop50.9

29.6Endgame7.4

25Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	25
teleop	22	27
endgame	26	19
foul	5	5
total	67	76

Result

Final score

67 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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