Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.39 – 153.29

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 172 ±12.8

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 75.47Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8006The Phantoms

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 26.27Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

867Absolute Value

Season APEX 30Event APEX 32.65Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.4 ±11

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 81.74Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 45.49Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5124West Torrance Robotics

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 26.06Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 812, 8006, 867

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 812, 8006, 867

Auto

3.6 2%

Teleop

92.4 64%

Endgame

48.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1160, 4123, 5124

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1160, 4123, 5124

Auto

21.7 14%

Teleop

92.8 61%

Endgame

36.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134.4pts

Blue projected score153.3pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.9
Score range: 105–182
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 160.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

172Season APEX344.4

3.6Auto21.7

92.4Teleop92.8

48.1Endgame36.7

24Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	42
teleop	50	104
endgame	30	45
foul	0	5
total	102	196

Result

Final score

102 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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