Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

181.47 – 264.16

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 392

Prediction correct · off by 111.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338 ±10.4

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 102.17Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 47.72Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 31.58Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 667.8 ±9.9

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 102.64Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 10.34Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 151.18Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4415, 4999, 1197

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4415, 4999, 1197

Auto

40.9 26%

Teleop

45.6 28%

Endgame

73.7 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1538, 3952, 599

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1538, 3952, 599

Auto

57.6 22%

Teleop

164.7 62%

Endgame

42.7 16%

Strengths

· 599 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.5pts

Blue projected score264.2pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.7
Score range: 153–292
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 478 vs event baseline 157.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338Season APEX667.8

40.9Auto57.6

45.6Teleop164.7

73.7Endgame42.7

88Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	86
teleop	34	215
endgame	3	86
foul	5	5
total	86	392

Result

Final score

86 – 392

Prediction correct · off by 111.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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