Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.96 – 259.04

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 280

Prediction correct · off by 49 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 197.5 ±11.6

5851Striking Vikings

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 55.36Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 45.44Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7447Rōnin Robotics

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 23.16Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.7 ±11.7

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 55.35Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3473Team Sprocket

Season APEX 54.5Event APEX 1.04Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 202.65Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5851, 4079, 7447

/ 100 compat

Projected

124 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5851, 4079, 7447

Auto

8.0 7%

Teleop

63.3 52%

Endgame

51.2 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4141, 3473, 9408

/ 100 compat

Projected

259 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4141, 3473, 9408

Auto

59.3 23%

Teleop

144.0 56%

Endgame

52.8 21%

Strengths

· 9408 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124pts

Blue projected score259pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -135.1
Score range: 96–287
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 327 vs event baseline 157.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

197.5Season APEX427.7

8Auto59.3

63.3Teleop144

51.2Endgame52.8

14Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	59
teleop	34	98
endgame	9	78
foul	0	45
total	47	280

Result

Final score

47 – 280

Prediction correct · off by 49 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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