Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.43 – 42.31

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

191 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.6 ±11

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 61.72Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4470TiGears

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 24.74Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 49.97Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.5 ±12.2

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX -7.94Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 21.43Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5124West Torrance Robotics

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 28.82Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 812, 4470, 4123

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 812, 4470, 4123

Auto

30.8 23%

Teleop

73.6 55%

Endgame

28.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 968, 4501, 5124

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 968, 4501, 5124

Auto

13.5 24%

Teleop

58.2 100%

Endgame

-16.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136.4pts

Blue projected score42.3pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94.1
Score range: 13–165
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 159.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.6Season APEX201.5

30.8Auto13.5

73.6Teleop58.2

28.4Endgame-16.1

14Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	9
teleop	103	16
endgame	42	0
foul	5	5
total	191	30

Result

Final score

191 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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