Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.84 – 152.28

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.6 ±13.9

8006The Phantoms

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 26.64Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1836The MilkenKnights

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX -16.66Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7230Mythic Mechanix

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 27.86Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.7 ±12.2

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 49.75Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 84.77Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 17.76Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8006, 1836, 7230

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8006, 1836, 7230

Auto

11.5 31%

Teleop

9.2 24%

Endgame

17.0 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4999, 5669, 3952

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4999, 5669, 3952

Auto

21.6 15%

Teleop

66.1 46%

Endgame

55.1 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score37.8pts

Blue projected score152.3pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -114.4
Score range: 9–181
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 162.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180.6Season APEX252.7

11.5Auto21.6

9.2Teleop66.1

17Endgame55.1

68Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	30
teleop	25	43
endgame	9	14
foul	0	30
total	54	117

Result

Final score

54 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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