Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.31 – 41.95

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 72.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.8 ±11.2

8898Royal Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 3.71Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 86.24Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 88.36Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.1 ±12.2

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 36.66Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5285Sea Kings Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 3.11Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3473Team Sprocket

Season APEX 54.5Event APEX 2.18Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8898, 1538, 4415

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8898, 1538, 4415

Auto

44.0 26%

Teleop

87.0 51%

Endgame

38.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4079, 5285, 3473

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4079, 5285, 3473

Auto

20.9 52%

Teleop

10.7 27%

Endgame

8.3 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178.3pts

Blue projected score41.9pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136.4
Score range: 13–207
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 158.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.8Season APEX204.1

44Auto20.9

87Teleop10.7

38Endgame8.3

98Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	27
teleop	129	34
endgame	68	29
foul	30	0
total	275	90

Result

Final score

275 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 72.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree