Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.45 – 221.81

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

11 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 55.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.4 ±12.8

6904TeraWatts

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 25Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 0.77Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

867Absolute Value

Season APEX 30Event APEX 53.68Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.1 ±11.7

1836The MilkenKnights

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX -22.34Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 51.56Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 192.59Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6904, 968, 867

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6904, 968, 867

Auto

9.0 13%

Teleop

64.7 91%

Endgame

-2.8 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1836, 4141, 9408

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1836, 4141, 9408

Auto

57.5 28%

Teleop

112.6 54%

Endgame

37.4 18%

Strengths

· 9408 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.5pts

Blue projected score221.8pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -142.4
Score range: 50–251
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 159.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.4Season APEX442.1

9Auto57.5

64.7Teleop112.6

-2.8Endgame37.4

102Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	59
teleop	0	127
endgame	5	78
foul	0	0
total	11	264

Result

Final score

11 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 55.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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