Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.93 – 53.6

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 53.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 595.5 ±9.9

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 127.97Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5124West Torrance Robotics

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 15.57Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 83.39Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.1 ±12.8

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 66.62Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3473Team Sprocket

Season APEX 54.5Event APEX -20.91Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 7.89Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2102, 5124, 1538

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2102, 5124, 1538

Auto

33.4 15%

Teleop

135.9 61%

Endgame

54.7 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4415, 3473, 4501

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4415, 3473, 4501

Auto

14.7 40%

Teleop

19.5 53%

Endgame

2.3 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score226.9pts

Blue projected score53.6pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 173.3
Score range: 25–256
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 158.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

595.5Season APEX247.1

33.4Auto14.7

135.9Teleop19.5

54.7Endgame2.3

65Consistency225

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	29
teleop	163	63
endgame	16	35
foul	0	5
total	256	132

Result

Final score

256 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 53.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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