Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

298.73 – 228.58

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

303 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 473.6 ±11.2

867Absolute Value

Season APEX 30Event APEX 62.09Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 187.68Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 48.96Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.8 ±11.2

8898Royal Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 19.2Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 61.71Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 147.67Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 867, 9408, 4123

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 867, 9408, 4123

Auto

70.6 24%

Teleop

161.6 55%

Endgame

60.0 21%

Strengths

· 9408 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8898, 1197, 599

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8898, 1197, 599

Auto

39.4 17%

Teleop

149.2 66%

Endgame

38.7 17%

Strengths

· 599 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score298.7pts

Blue projected score228.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.2
Score range: 201–327
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 483 vs event baseline 152.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

473.6Season APEX410.8

70.6Auto39.4

161.6Teleop149.2

60Endgame38.7

63Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	30
teleop	167	84
endgame	61	66
foul	10	0
total	303	180

Result

Final score

303 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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