Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.72 – 118.86

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 60.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268.2 ±10.4

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 55.04Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 67.43Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 78.25Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.9 ±12.7

8006The Phantoms

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 59.09Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5285Sea Kings Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 7.58Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 52.19Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4079, 4999, 812

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4079, 4999, 812

Auto

40.7 21%

Teleop

106.7 54%

Endgame

51.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8006, 5285, 4141

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8006, 5285, 4141

Auto

20.5 16%

Teleop

68.2 53%

Endgame

40.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score200.7pts

Blue projected score118.9pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.9
Score range: 91–229
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 156.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268.2Season APEX190.9

40.7Auto20.5

106.7Teleop68.2

51Endgame40

20Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	26
teleop	53	40
endgame	36	21
foul	5	0
total	111	87

Result

Final score

111 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 60.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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