Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.15 – 50.7

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 78.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.1 ±12.2

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 128.27Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 15.31Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 11.57Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259 ±12.8

6904TeraWatts

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 13.2Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7230Mythic Mechanix

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 4.4Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 33.1Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1160, 3952, 4501

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1160, 3952, 4501

Auto

14.7 10%

Teleop

87.7 58%

Endgame

48.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6904, 7230, 4415

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6904, 7230, 4415

Auto

22.1 50%

Teleop

13.5 30%

Endgame

9.0 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.2pts

Blue projected score50.7pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.5
Score range: 22–184
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 159.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.1Season APEX259

14.7Auto22.1

87.7Teleop13.5

48.1Endgame9

71Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	43
teleop	64	54
endgame	18	18
foul	0	35
total	97	150

Result

Final score

97 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 78.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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