Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.58 – 203.53

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.5 ±13.3

5285Sea Kings Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX -2.79Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

867Absolute Value

Season APEX 30Event APEX 59.85Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7230Mythic Mechanix

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 5.52Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 456.9 ±9.8

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 65.02Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 94.52Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 43.99Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5285, 867, 7230

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5285, 867, 7230

Auto

21.9 35%

Teleop

17.3 28%

Endgame

23.7 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4079, 599, 4999

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4079, 599, 4999

Auto

24.4 12%

Teleop

123.4 60%

Endgame

58.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.6pts

Blue projected score203.5pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -140.9
Score range: 34–233
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 159.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.5Season APEX456.9

21.9Auto24.4

17.3Teleop123.4

23.7Endgame58.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	56
teleop	41	167
endgame	12	50
foul	0	0
total	90	273

Result

Final score

90 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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