Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.71 – 77.34

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 260

Prediction missed · off by 108.2 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 197.8 ±12.7

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 27.85Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4141Monarch Robotics

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 85.34Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6904TeraWatts

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 2.52Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.3 ±11.7

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 54.72Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5669Techmen

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 25.29Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX -2.67Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3952, 4141, 6904

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3952, 4141, 6904

Auto

16.2 15%

Teleop

72.7 66%

Endgame

22.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 812, 5669, 4123

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 812, 5669, 4123

Auto

22.1 30%

Teleop

48.1 66%

Endgame

2.8 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.7pts

Blue projected score77.3pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.4
Score range: 48–145
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 158.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

197.8Season APEX317.3

16.2Auto22.1

72.7Teleop48.1

22Endgame2.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	43
teleop	44	139
endgame	25	63
foul	0	15
total	82	260

Result

Final score

82 – 260

Prediction missed · off by 108.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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