Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.85 – 25.73

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

382 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 172.2 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 644.2 ±10.7

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 54.34Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 57.39Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8006The Phantoms

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 4.12Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.1 ±12.8

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 25.76Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX -8.47Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8898Royal Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 8.44Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1538, 9408, 8006

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1538, 9408, 8006

Auto

40.3 40%

Teleop

65.2 64%

Endgame

-4.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1197, 4501, 8898

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1197, 4501, 8898

Auto

9.0 38%

Teleop

9.6 41%

Endgame

4.9 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.9pts

Blue projected score25.7pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.1
Score range: -1–143
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 147.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

644.2Season APEX174.1

40.3Auto9

65.2Teleop9.6

-4.3Endgame4.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	16
teleop	218	56
endgame	89	27
foul	0	5
total	382	104

Result

Final score

382 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 172.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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