Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

93.52 – 63.89

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 25.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.8 ±12.8

4501Humans

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 32.82Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1836The MilkenKnights

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 19.79Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 40.91Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163.5 ±13.3

867Absolute Value

Season APEX 30Event APEX 9.18Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3473Team Sprocket

Season APEX 54.5Event APEX 16.91Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3952Troy Robotics

Season APEX 79Event APEX 37.8Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4501, 1836, 4999

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4501, 1836, 4999

Auto

30.0 34%

Teleop

39.8 45%

Endgame

18.4 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 867, 3473, 3952

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 867, 3473, 3952

Auto

21.2 37%

Teleop

19.4 34%

Endgame

17.3 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.5pts

Blue projected score63.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.6
Score range: 32–126
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 176.6.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.8Season APEX163.5

30Auto21.2

39.8Teleop19.4

18.4Endgame17.3

11Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	8
teleop	5	32
endgame	5	24
foul	10	0
total	42	64

Result

Final score

42 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 25.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.