Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

433.74 – 195.84

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

527 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 82.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 679 ±9.3

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 195.98Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 14.19Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 223.57Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.9 ±11

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 103.4Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5124West Torrance Robotics

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 24.34Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 68.1Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 599, 968, 9408

/ 100 compat

Projected

433.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 599, 968, 9408

Auto

77.4 19%

Teleop

248.1 60%

Endgame

91.3 22%

Strengths

· 9408 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4415, 5124, 4123

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4415, 5124, 4123

Auto

48.1 25%

Teleop

98.9 51%

Endgame

45.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score433.7pts

Blue projected score195.8pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 237.9
Score range: 165–465
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 652 vs event baseline 174.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

679Season APEX342.9

77.4Auto48.1

248.1Teleop98.9

91.3Endgame45.2

0Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	27
teleop	293	59
endgame	87	34
foul	95	5
total	527	125

Result

Final score

527 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 82.1 pts

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