FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

468.29 – 547.28

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

422 – 524

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 754.9 ±9.3

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 114.11Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 189.09Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 165.09Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 843.6 ±8.7

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 112.61Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 249.84Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 184.83Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9452, 3255, 2659

/ 100 compat

Projected

468.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9452, 3255, 2659

Auto

69.5 15%

Teleop

250.8 54%

Endgame

140.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 687, 1538, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

547.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 687, 1538, 973

Auto

108.3 20%

Teleop

296.3 55%

Endgame

131.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.62 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score468.3pts

Blue projected score547.3pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79
Score range: 407–608
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 946 vs event baseline 336.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

754.9Season APEX843.6

69.5Auto108.3

250.8Teleop296.3

140.4Endgame131.6

100Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	131
teleop	201	228
endgame	153	150
foul	0	15
total	422	524

Result

Final score

422 – 524

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.