Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
429.9 – 454.03
43%57%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
432 – 499
Prediction correct · off by 23.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.5 ±9.8
Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 58.56Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 192.51Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 178.83Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 837.2 ±8.7
Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 164.44Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 159.61Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 129.98Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1197, 1388, 2102
80
/ 100 compatProjected
429.9 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1197, 1388, 2102
Auto
72.6 18%
Teleop
205.3 52%
Endgame
118.6 30%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 32%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9084, 7415, 3128
80
/ 100 compatProjected
454 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9084, 7415, 3128
Auto
112.6 26%
Teleop
230.9 53%
Endgame
95.9 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 32%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.97
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score429.9pts
Blue projected score454pts
Red win probability43%
Event bonus sample270alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 62%, blue 52%
Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 28%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -24.1
- Score range
- 370–514
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
540.5Season APEX837.2
72.6Auto112.6
205.3Teleop230.9
118.6Endgame95.9
145Consistency58
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 67 | 106 |
| teleop | 204 | 240 |
| endgame | 156 | 118 |
| foul | 5 | 35 |
| total | 432 | 499 |
Result
Final score
432 – 499
Prediction correct · off by 23.5 pts
Match videos
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